LONDON: Iran鈥檚 leadership has 鈥渮ero answers鈥� to the population鈥檚 鈥渧ery legitimate鈥� demands, and its brutal crackdown on nationwide protests will shape society for years to come, a UK panel has heard.
The regime in Tehran is 鈥減erhaps the most insular and least qualified in the history of the Islamic Republic,鈥� Iranian-American Washington Post columnist Jason Rezaian told a webinar organized by London-based international affairs think tank Chatham House.
Thursday鈥檚 event, titled 鈥淭he Islamic Republic at 44鈥� and attended by Arab News, was moderated by Sanam Vakil, Chatham House鈥檚 Middle East and North Africa program deputy director.
It included Rezaian; Azadeh Pourzand, director of the Siamak Pourzand Foundation, which promotes freedom of expression for artists, writers and journalists; and Kian Tajbakhsh, senior adviser for Columbia Global Centers, which are research outposts established by Columbia University in different locations worldwide.
Rezaian and Tajbakhsh, both dual nationals, have faced political persecution and imprisonment in Iran at different times.
Rezaian described the protests that erupted in Iran last year as 鈥渦nprecedented.鈥� The standard of living and quality of life in the country have 鈥減lummeted across the board,鈥� he said.
鈥淭here鈥檚 no coming back鈥� from the regime鈥檚 brutal crackdown, Rezaian added, referring to the killing of innocent people, including children, and the stifling of Internet access nationwide.
The origins of public anger lie in deteriorating economic conditions, with the Iranian state 鈥渘o longer delivering on basic services鈥� and 鈥減eople failing to see their lives improving,鈥� he said, adding that the regime has 鈥渮ero answers.鈥�
However, he warned against the West failing to enforce economic sanctions on Iran. 鈥淚f we don鈥檛 activate the international levers of justice to hold the regime accountable, it (sanctions) is all for show,鈥� he said. The threat of Iran鈥檚 nuclear capability is also an issue that 鈥渃an鈥檛 be ignored,鈥� Rezaian added.
Tajbakhsh said the roots of the 鈥渢oxic relationship鈥� between the US and Iran lie in the regime鈥檚 鈥渆xtremely consistent and coherent鈥� rejection of Western ties.
Panelists discussed the future of the Iranian protest movement, with Rezaian and Tajbakhsh predicting that the 鈥渃ulture war鈥� in the country would shape society for years to come.
However, Tajbakhsh warned: 鈥淭he bad news is that the regime has succeeded in repressing and controlling the protest movement.
鈥淧rotests remained restricted to a narrow band of people from their late teens to late 20s, and failed to expand to the urban middle class or the military.鈥�
Pourzand described the nationwide demonstrations as a 鈥渜uest of a people for an ordinary life,鈥� adding that 鈥渄ignity and quality of life鈥� are the key demands of the public.
From now on, the regime, which 鈥渓acks any form of accountability鈥� and has 鈥渓ost all legitimacy in the international arena,鈥� is 鈥渙nly buying extra time,鈥� she said. The resilience and creativity of the Iranian people offer hope for the future, Pourzand added.
However, Tajbakhsh argued that the economic situation in Iran鈥檚 urban centers, including Tehran, 鈥渋s often not as dire as presented by the international media.鈥�
The protest movement represents only a small section of the country, he said, adding that the demonstrations and crackdown represent 鈥渃ompeting visions of society that will clash over the coming decades.鈥�
Tajbakhsh said: 鈥淭he striking thing about the government response is its solidarity. There was almost no dissent from any senior officials or clerics, which demonstrated the remarkable unity of the regime.鈥�
The high price of repression, the tolerable economic situation, and the lack of effective alternative political organization have made the middle class reluctant to join the protest movement, he added.
鈥淚f you look at Iran, it鈥檚 remarkably successful. It鈥檚 stomping across the Middle East, it outwitted the West in Syria, and it controls a country bordering Israel,鈥� Tajbakhsh said, referring to Lebanon.
鈥淚t maintained this and has remained in power over many, many decades. It has avoided political fissures, circumvented sanctions, as well as provided enough economic welfare so that the stakes of the middle class to overthrow the regime are too high.鈥�
It will never alter its behavior as long as it has the support of key regional allies, he added, warning that protests and revolts are 鈥渁n ordinary day鈥檚 work for authoritarian regimes.鈥�